The Corbett Report, October 18, 2014

Introduction

 So I know what you’re thinking. The songs a bit premature right? We’re still mathematically not eliminated. Seriously though, here’s what has to happen for the Bombers to make the playoffs. We’re four points behind BC so first of all we have to catch them. They have 3 games left as do we, so we would need to gain two games on them. Obviously winning next week’s game against BC is a must, then we’d still need to beat Calgary at least once in the two games we have with them and hope BC loses their two other games. So that could be a thing (fyi …. BC plays Calgary and Edmonton in their other two games).

So if that thing comes true, then we’d be in 4^th in the west. We’d still need to have a better record than the 3^rd place team in the East to invoke the crossover. At 6-9 right now, assuming we get to 8-10 we’d still be hoping the 3^rd place team in the East ends up 7-11. Here’s the scoop on that. The top three teams in the East (TO, Mtl, Ham) all play Ottawa. So they’re likely to all end up with at least 7 wins (Hamilton just got theirs on Friday). So that’s a long shot.

Math is wonderful. Hope springs eternal. Climate change isn’t real. The Jet’s are Stanley Cup contenders. Stephen Harper’s a warm and cuddly guy. Slice it, dice it as you’d like, but I’m afraid the song is not premature.

Welcome to week 17. Welcome to the Corbett Report.

Standings

 

WEST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against	Streak
Calgary	12	2	24	392	263	2 Wins
Edmonton	10	5	50	414	294	1 Win
Sask	9	6	18	329	360	3 Losses
BC	8	7	16	333	272	1 Win
Winnipeg	6	9	12	333	407	6 Losses
EAST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against	Streak
Hamilton	7	8	14	330	328	1 Win
Toronto	6	8	12	285	322	3 Wins
Montreal	6	8	12	285	323	1 Loss
Ottawa	2	13	4	231	385	2 Losses

 

So anything of interest jump out at you? How about FOUR HUNDRED AND SEVEN POINTS AGAINST!   That’s what happens when you’re coming off of two consecutive games with 40+ points against. Clearly, one of the problems the Bombers face is on defense.

 

Misplaced optimism

Up until the Ottawa game of a few weeks ago, I’d suggest that there was still optimism amongst the Bomber faithful. Lost some games sure, but still in the games. Still competing, Close games (two in particular against Sask). Then came Ottawa. A debacle of a game. A 42-20 loss against the expansion Redblacks. How bad is that! Looked at in hindsight, week two should have been an indication of things to come. Ottawa’s first game EVER, resulted in a 36-28 come from behind Winnipeg victory. Ottawa’s gone on to win just 2 games. They’ve been a cakewalk for every team except the Bombers. How so? Let’s put it this way, 30% of the Redblacks points have been scored against the Bombers.

In short, early season optimism was misplaced and now I think we’re seeing the True Blue. (Sigh).

Needless pessimism

Looking back to this time last year I’d suggest we’re in much better shape this year. It looks like we have a QB to build a team around, and at least we haven’t fired everyone from the water boy on up to the CEO this year. There’s more to come from the Corbett Report on what needs to change but suffice to say, an O-Line and firing the Defensive Coordinator (OMG I sound like Frank!) would be a good start.

Rome wasn’t built in a day….yada…yada…yada. Let’s not throw out the baby with the bath water. (Goggling frantically for other over used clichés).

However, let’s put the post-mortem on hold, cause there’s still a game or to play.

 

This week’s matchup

 

So how does Calgary match up with the Bombers tonight? Let’s look at the key differences.

 

• They’re staring Bo-Levi Mitchell, the #1 ranked QB in the CFL. We’re starting Brian Brohm. It’s his first start EVER!

 

• They have the league 2^nd leading rusher in Jon Cormish (who is second but has missed ½ the games this year). Our leading rusher is unemployed.

 

• They’re defense allows on average 91 yards rushing a game (2^nd in the league), we allow on average 1.7 kilometers (last).

 

• They rush for 144 yards per game on average. We rush for 72 on average. Hmmm…..isn’t that double? Like EXACTLY double.

 

I don’t think I need to go on. The Stamps are the class of the league. The Bombers, have a nicer stadium. It all averages out in the end right?

 

The prediction

 

Oh my. This could get ugly. Let’s hope the Stamps have more class than Chris Jones’ crew last week. Any point spread of 10 or less would be a moral victory for the Bombers. Not gonna happen.

Stamps 42      Bombers 11