The Corbett Report, October 3, 2015

Introduction

The enigma that has become the 2015 Bombers played another card in their streak of inconsistency last week. This one, almost an ace. Against the league-leading Stampeders, the Bombers played a high-spirited, enthusiastic game only to fall 25 – 23 to the Stamps when Lirim Hajrullahu missed a last minute field goal that would have tied the game. Written off by many of the Bomber faithful, the Bombers showed some spark in all three phases of the game. Matt Nichols was 18-28 (2 TDs, 0 Int), the defense was after Mitchell all night, and hey, get this, the special teams didn’t give up a touchdown.

That’s how it’s been this year. Lose 3, looks like the year’s another write-off, and then suddenly an effort that makes you think there might be hope! Still, a loss is a loss and that brings us to this week. Back-to-back home games and back-to-back visitors from Alberta. The Eskimos aren’t the Stamps, but with a record that’s the exact opposite of the Bombers (9-4 vs 4-9) this could be another one of those games where Edmonton’s thinking they’ve got the free space on the CFL Bingo card. Still, they have to play the game, and perhaps, just perhaps, this will be the week when the Bombers define themselves. They’ll need to because if they don’t, it truly will be next year time again.

Welcome to week 15, welcome to the Corbett Report.

Standings (thru Friday October 2^nd)

			WEST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against	Streak
Calgary	10	3	20	347	270	2 Wins
Edmonton	9	4	18	326	238	3 Wins
BC	4	8	8	268	345	3 Losses
Winnipeg	4	9	8	246	377	2 Losses
Sask	2	11	4	322	386	1 Win
			EAST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against	Streak
Hamilton	8	4	16	410	246	1 Loss
Ottawa	8	5	16	319	338	1 Win
Toronto	7	5	14	312	348	1 Win
Montreal	5	8	10	280	282	2 Losses

Only in the CFL would a 4 – 9 team still be alive in the playoff race. Last week both Sask and the Eskimos did the Bombers a favour as the 3 teams vying for the last playoff spot (Montreal, Winnipeg and BC) all lost. One of these teams needs to take charge and it may as well be the Bombers.

The Bombers

The Bombers are a woeful 1-5 since they lost QB Drew Willy. Last week though, they got their act together and came 1 bad officiating call away from knocking off the Grey Cup champs. That spirited play will need to continue this week. With Matt Nichols facing his former team look for him to come out with an inspired effort. It’ll be a challenge on offense though. Edmonton leads the league in all defensive categories including fewest yards allowed per game (309), fewest passing yards allowed per game (240) and fewest rushing yards allowed per game (70). With an anemic rushing game (Chevron Walker just isn’t the answer) it’ll fall to Matt Nichols to get the job done through the air. Fortunately Nick Moore is back from injury and along with Darwin Adams and Clarence Denmark, the Bombers have the best receiving corps in their lineup that they’ve had all year.

The Bombers on defense are starting to look pretty decent, at least against the pass where they’re limiting the opposition to 255 yards per game. Their Achilles’ heel though continues to be the run D. Last week Jon Cornish tore up the field with just short of 100 yards of rushing. Unfortunately while Edmonton doesn’t have a Cornish in the line up they’re still third in the league in rushing.

The Eskimos

The Eskimos, like so many teams in the CFL this year, lost their starting QB. Unlike most teams though, they haven’t missed a beat. First Matt Nichols (yes the same Matt Nichols who’s now the Bomber QB), won 5 games, then Jerome Franklin came in and held the fort until Mike Reilly returned two weeks ago to lead the Eskimos to 2 more wins. It’s not on offense though that the Eskimos will scare you. It’s their defense. They’re second in the league in sacks and first in fewest yards allowed and fewest points allowed. They’re solid at every position. It could be a long night for the Bomber O.

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Ball control is a must. Edmonton’s D feasts on turnovers.
• The crowd will be small but loud. Keep them in the game by winning the first quarter.
• Nichols needs to play within his abilities and not get overhyped about playing his old teammates
• The offense will struggle to move the ball; a special team TD would make a difference.

 For the Eskimos to win

• Score early. The Bombers are a fragile bunch and could fold like a Manitoba sunflower in the late fall
• Reilly’s thrown a few more interceptions than he’d like in the past few games. Keep the ball going to those green and gold players and out of the blue and gold hands.
• Adrianne Bowman had only 30 yards and 4 catches last week, he’ll need more than that this week.
• Pressure, pressure, pressure. The Edmonton defensive line is formidable. The Bombers O-line . . . uhmmm . . . not so much

Game Prediction

Last game

Corbett Report:              Calgary 45 Bombers 12

Actual:                          Calgary 25 Bombers 23

Season results

Bomber games      9 – 4

All CFL games      35 – 21

It’s an intriguing match up this week. Two years ago these were the two worst teams in the league. Now . . . well, let’s just say they’ve followed different paths. With Montreal’s loss on Friday night the Bombers have the opportunity to regain a playoff position with a win. That should be motivation enough but add in the Nichols vs. Eskimos factor and the intrigue is ramped up a bit.

On paper, the game prediction should be a no-brainer.   Good thing they don’t play the game on paper! It might not be pretty, but it’s gonna be:

Bombers 20 Edmonton 18

This week’s other games

Ottawa over Montreal (predicted before the game started)

Calgary over Hamilton (No Zach, no Chance)

Saskatchewan over BC (Can they do the Bombers a favour again?)