The Corbett Report, October 24, 2015

Introduction

Twelve Thousand, Two Hundred and Ten. 12,210, was the attendance in Winnipeg on November 13^th in Eastern Semi-final in 1988.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers entered the playoffs with a 9 – 9 record and were on a 3 game losing streak. The faithful had abandoned the bandwagon, the weather was miserable (-8 at game time with a 26 km wind), no one gave the Bombers much of a chance against Hamilton who, while also 9 – 9, had come on strong as the season progressed. Back in those days, season ticket holder packages didn’t include a playoff ticket and most fans chose to stay home to either listen to the game on the radio (TV blackout), or get ready to head to the Winnipeg Arena to watch the Jets play the Canadiens (They won by the way: 7 – 3). So into this lethargic atmosphere the Bombers took the field, players’ cars packed ready for the ride to warmer climates, knowing that they couldn’t fulfill the destiny and expectations laid out only four years previously in the 1984 Grey Cup. But Bomber coach Mike Riley saw a different path, and on the strength of their defense the Bombers prevailed 35 – 28. Tickets for the bandwagon started to become a hot commodity. All for naught, though, right? Next up was the Toronto Argonauts.

With a 14 – 4 record the Argos finished a full 10 points ahead of the Bombers and lead the league with 571 points for and 326 against (the Bombers by comparison had 407 for and 458 against). Not much point in making the trip. Except, about that D! They held the Argos to a measly 11 points in the Eastern final and managed 27 of their own points and off to the Grey Cup they went.

In the Western division a similar scenario was playing out and the 10 – 8 BC Lions weaved their way through Sask and Edmonton to join the Bombers in the Grey Cup that has the history of having the two participants with the combined poorest record to ever attend the Grey Cup.

I could go on forever about the 1988 Grey Cup but suffice to say the Bomber D had Matt Dunigan’s number all day and when Mike Gray intercepted Dunigan in the end zone with 2 minutes to go the Lions’ fate was sealed and the Bombers held on for a 22 – 21 victory.

The Bombers would win the Grey Cup again in 1990, a resounding 50 – 11 victory over Edmonton. After that? Well you know how it played out.

The point of the story, though, is obvious. In the CFL anything is possible as long as the math still works. Today, it still works for the Bombers, and as bad as a season as it’s been, the last home game still has some meaning and could still propel the team into the playoffs. After that? Well, there are 12,210 people who’ll let ya know.

Welcome to week 17, welcome to the Corbett Report.

Standings (thru Friday October 23)

			WEST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against	Streak
Edmonton	12	4	24	391	295	6 Wins
Calgary	12	4	24	408	320	1 Win
BC	6	10	12	403	433	1 Win
Winnipeg	5	11	10	322	454	1 Loss
Sask	2	13	4	357	462	2 Losses
			EAST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against	Streak
Hamilton	10	6	20	496	335	1 Loss
Ottawa	9	6	18	381	400	2 Win
Toronto	9	7	18	392	461	2 Losses
Montreal	6	10	12	342	332	1 Win

 

One losing team will make the playoffs in the west this year. Why not the Bombers? Unfortunately, after last nights’ BC and Montreal victories the Bombers may not be that team. But win their last two games and the Bombers are still in the mix. Not sure if that’s a good thing, but hey, remember 1988!

 

 

The Bombers

The Bombers played an excellent game of football during the past two weeks. Unfortunately it was the second half of each of the last two games. In both the Edmonton game (a victory) and the Ottawa game (a loss) the Bombers laid an egg in the first half. They managed a comeback in both but obviously, to throw in a cliché, football’s a 60-minute game.

The bright spot developing with this team is the defense. They’ve held their opponents to less than 30 points for four weeks after some miserable outings early in the year.

Special teams have also shored up their performance with some good returns developing from Stoudermire and the kicking game with Harjrullahu punting and Castillo kicking showing some consistency.

The weakness of late of course has been the offense. With virtually no running game the burden of gaining yards has fallen on Nichols. He needs to play with his ability and better manage the game.

The Redblacks

As Henry goes, so goes the Redblacks – it’s as simple as that. He leads the league in yards passing (4,735), percentage completion (72.2%), and with 19 TD’s in 15 games compared to only 9 interceptions he truly is having an MVP season. On the strength of Burris’ arm the Redblacks lead the league in total offense (401 per game compared to the Bombers league worst 317).

So that’s the challenge for the Bombers. Stop Henry and you stop Ottawa. No one else has, let’s see if they can.

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Try playing a bit in the first ½ . Just a bit even.
• Nichols needs to play within his abilities and not get overhyped about playing his old teammates.
• The offense will struggle to move the ball; a special team TD would make a difference.
• Stop Henry!

 For the Redblacks to win

• Good Hank or bad Hank? Burris is on fire and a shoe-in for MVP of the year. Just keep doing what you’ve been doing (there really hasn’t been much “Bad Hank” this year)
• The Bombers are desperate. A first half lead will shake their confidence.
• Time of possession is key. Wear out the Bombers D.
• Nichols has been INT prone of late. Get a pick – 6

Game Prediction

Last game

Corbett Report:              Bombers 20 Edmonton 18

Actual:                          Edmonton 24 Winnipeg 23

Season results

Bomber games      10 – 6 (I wish that was their record)

All CFL games      43 – 26

The season for the Bombers is over today if they don’t win. Not mathematically perhaps, but with only one game left they’d need Montreal and BC to both lose their final two games and they’d have to win in Toronto to finish the season to get in. Let’s hope that they’re attune to the need for some intensity. I think they are.

Bombers 20 Redblacks 18

This week’s other games

Hamilton over BC (predicted before the game started)

Toronto over Montreal (Kevin Glenn’s not the answer)

Edmonton over Saskatchewan