The Corbett Report, September 21, 2018

Introduction

It’s the 13^thgame of the season and it’s come down to this. After just 12 games in a season that started with so much promise the Bombers find themselves in a pivotal game that may have implications, not just for this year’s playoff hopes but for the franchise for years to come.

After 12 weeks this team was supposed to be battling with Calgary and Edmonton to secure a home playoff date.  Instead, they find themselves in the West division cellar trying to claw their way back into a crossover spot.  Not to be overdramatic, but the future of Matt Nichols as the teams QB and the future of Mike O’Shea and his coaching staff may very well be determined tonight.  The Bombers, quite simply, have left themselves no wiggle room.  While a loss tonight to the larks that are the Alouettes may not mathematically eliminate the Bombers, the extension of their losing streak to 5 games would leave their fan base demoralized and suggestions of still getting into the playoffs seem like grasping at a wing and a prayer.

A 5-7 record after 12 games is certainly not where I expected the Bombers would be and it’s likely not where they deserve to be but it’s where they are.  A win tonight and they take a small step towards stabilizing the plane.  A loss tonight?  Well, the consequences will be far reaching.

Welcome to week 15, welcome to the Corbett Report.

The Standings

WEST
Team	Wins	Losses	Tie	Pts	For	Against
Calgary	10	2	0	20	380	248
Edmonton	7	5	0	14	353	312
Sask	7	5	0	14	303	303
BC	5	6	0	10	259	264
Winnipeg	5	7	0	10	365	316
EAST
Team	Wins	Losses	Tie	Pts	For	Against
Ottawa	7	5	0	14	299	278
Hamilton	6	6	0	12	335	296
Toronto	3	8	0	6	236	346
Montreal	3	9	0	6	204	371

To get the crossover to the East the Bombers must finish 4^thin the West with a better record than the 3^rdplace team in the East.  That second part is more than doable but moving ahead of BC will take some wins and a loss or two by BC.  The upcoming schedules are:

BC

Home to Hamilton, @Hamilton, Home to TO,  @ Calgary, Home to Edmonton, @ Sask, Home to Calgary

Bombers

Home to Montreal, @ Edmonton, @ Ottawa, Home to Sask, Home to Calgary, @ Edmonton

When you look at the schedule, it’s pretty easy to see why tonight is a must, must, must win.

The Bombers (5-7)

To say that the fans are restless in Winnipeg would be kind of like suggesting the Titanic suffered from a slight list to port.  How bad has it been this week? As usual social media produced its bizarre take on the world when fans voiced their displeasure at the lowering of hot dog and parking prices at the stadium, suggesting that it was the equivalent of offering free drinks to the passengers of that same Titanic after it hit that pesky iceberg.

To a man, the Bombers say they still believe in their team. That they’re still a strong, cohesive and positive group.  They’ll need to draw on that to secure a win tonight.

Coming into this season, and attested to in the first 6 or so games, the Bombers were believed to have a solid offense but a suspect defense. Of late however, it’s the offense that’s been letting the team down.  Take the Banjo bowl for example.  The defense didn’t give up a single touchdown, whereas the offense gave Sask 2! Not that the offense hasn’t been able to move the ball, but their recent trend of throwing picks (and particularly pic-6s) to the other team has to stop.  Matt Nichols has thrown more interceptions (12) than TD’s (11) this year. Compare that to last year when his ratio was 28 TDs to only 8 interceptions and you can see why some fans are pointing the finger at the pivot.  I don’t think it’s that simple though.

In the first 6 games of the year Bomber QB’s were hardly being hit and receivers seemed to be getting open effortlessly.  Of late, Nichols has been pressured more and receivers don’t seem to be on the same page as he is.  This week, that could change however.  His favourite receiver, Weston Dressler, returns to the line up, as does all-star offensive lineman Jermarcus Hardrick

So that’s a whole lotta words but what the Bombers need to do to return to their winning ways is simply play error-free football in all phases of the game.  (Aren’t you glad you’re not paying for this insight).

The Alouettes (3-9)

Since Anthony Calvillo retired this team has been a mess. They’ve started 18 different quarterbacks.  Eighteen. Hardly the model of consistency they were under the tutelage of Joe Popp and Marc Trestman.   This team is bad.  They are last in the league in the following stats.

Points scored, passing yards, passing TDs, total yards, time of possession, points allowed, yards allowed………well you get the picture . . . bad.

It’s no wonder that given their struggles they’ve turned their hopes to Johnny Manziel (aka Johnny Football).  He’s garnered more headlines this year than any other player.  A rather notable accomplishment given how Mike Reilly and Bo Levi Mitchell have performed ON the field.  Manziel’s lost his first two starts, has completed 27 of 46 passes for 242 yards and thrown for 4 interceptions.  His start this week makes for an interesting story line.  I think at the end of the night, that’s all it’ll be.

Keys to the game

So with all of that said, here are the keys to the game:

For the Bombers to win

• Put together a solid opening drive to silence the critics
• Nichols needs to regain his football smarts and regain his ball control moxie
• Contain the athletic but experience-challenged Johnny M

For the Alouettes to win

• Rattle Nichols early (he won’t admit it but self doubt must be starting to creep in)
• Johnny M lives up to all the hype
• Contain Andrew Harris

The predictions

Corbett report record this year

All CFL games               35-18 (66%)

Bomber games only           8-4  (67%)

Another triple-header Saturday where you’ll undoubtedly see:

Ottawa over Edmonton

Toronto over Sask

Hamilton over BC

(yes I’m delusional and yes I’m predicting an Eastern sweep this weekend)

At IGF . . . The Bombers really can’t lose this one can they? Nope.  Montreal’s the tonic that cures this 4 game malaise.

Winnipeg 40   Montreal 22