The Corbett Report, August 8, 2019

Introduction

When we last chatted, three weeks ago, the Bombers were well established in first place in the CFL West with a comfortable 4-point cushion over third-place Calgary.  I thought at the time, that first place in the West would come down to who won the three-game series between Calgary and Winnipeg (sorry Edmonton, until Jason Mass is gone you’re not in the mix).  That night, the Bombers manhandled the RedBlacks 31-1 to move to 5-0 and seemed well on their way to solidifying a first place finish regardless of the outcome of the Calgary series. With an Eastern division road trip to Hamilton and Toronto, surely the Bombers would start the season at 7-0.   Well, apparently you do have to play 60 minutes, play 110% and play error-free football.  The Bombers didn’t do any of that in their last two games, with losses to Hamilton (Nichols’ 3 interceptions) and Toronto (blowing a 20-0 lead).  So guess what, now the Calgary group of games have gained added importance, starting with tonight’s game.

So many clichés and so little time but one that matters tonight is the old adage, “To be the best, you have to beat the best”.  Well, Calgary has been the model franchise in the league for almost a decade and even without their starter Bo-Levi Mitchell at QB they’ve ground out a 5-2 record, just like the Bombers.  Tonight’s game could be a turning point in the season. Lose tonight and the Bombers will be just another middle of the pack team looking up at the mighty Stamps. Win tonight and the Bomber bandwagon (with ridership about as predictable as Winnipeg Transit with its work-to-rule schedule) can gain a few more passengers.

The Bombers lost last week in an embarrassing fashion.  A win tonight can erase that memory and set the stage for a strong run through the middle part of the season that sees another Edmonton game and of course the back-to-back Labour Day/Banjo Bowl games against the Riders.

It’s time for the Bombers to beat the best.

Welcome to week 9, welcome to the Corbett Report.

The Standings

 

WEST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against
Calgary	5	2	10	191	154
Winnipeg	5	2	10	211	131
Sask	4	3	8	207	173
Edmonton	4	3	8	179	126
BC	1	6	2	145	121
EAST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against
Hamilton	5	2	10	229	139
Montreal	3	3	6	154	161
Ottawa	3	4	6	156	209
Toronto	1	6	2	103	241

For the first time this season the Bombers find themselves tied for first. Not to be overlooked is Sask and Edmonton only two points back. Not to look ahead on the report too far, but the Bombers could find themselves in fourth place by Sunday.

The Bombers

Going into the Hamilton game, two weeks ago, Matt Nichols had 12 TDs and 1 interception.  In the Hamilton game he threw 3 interceptions, and with 3 other turnovers the Bombers giveaway/takeaway record plummeted.  In Toronto a key fumble by Andrew Harris cost the Bombers a TD that would undoubtedly have won them the game.  So all of a sudden the strength of this team has become its weakness.  So much of tonight’s game will hinge around holding onto the ball.

There’s concern (at least among Bomber fans, the team will never admit it) about the confidence of this offense.  Matt Nichols seemed hesitant to throw downfield last week and whether he was spooked because of the 3 picks the week before or whether (cough cough) it was the TO defensive performance, the result was a lacklustre performance in the passing game.  The Bombers squandered an outstanding performance by Harris last week.  They’ll need a repeat of his performance this week and a more solid performance by the rest of the offense.

Defensively, the Bombers looked like they had the league at their mercy through five weeks allowing just 80 points in total!  That unit seemed to fall apart last week in the final quarter when they gave up two long drives to end the game resulting in TO’s winning TD with ten seconds on the clock.  The D that cruised through the first five games needs to return to the field for the Bombers.

The Stampeders

When Bo-Levi went down in Week 1 I’m sure most fans of other CFL West teams felt the door had been opened to finally dethrone the perennial West division winners.  Enter Nick Arbuckle who has lead the Stamps to their 5-2 record completing 72.9% of his passes and throwing 6 TDs to 3 Interceptions.  As they most often do, the Stamps, under John Hufnagel and Dave Dickenson’s leadership, just keep rolling along.

In spite of significant turnover in personnel on the defensive side of the ball, the Stamps are still a formidable opponent on D.

In short, the Stamps are still a solid team.

Keys to the game

So with all of that said, here are the keys to the game:

For the Bombers to win

• While they’d never admit it, the Bombers have to be struggling with confidence.They’ll need to be solid early in “all three phases of the game” (quote for CB)
• No points-against off of turnovers. That’s been the difference in the past two losses vs the first five victories
• Defense needs to defend against the big play. (Calgary usually has at least a couple per game)

For the Stamps to win

• A couple of early sacks on Nichols or a pick would rattle the Bombers offense
• Stop Harris. Last week he accounted for 56% of the total Bomber offense and with Darwin Adams out this week he’ll be getting even more touches
• Win the turnover game (cause the Bombers never win if they lose the turnover game – I’m I getting redundant?)

The predictions

Picks (a Western Sweep)

Sask over Montreal

Edmonton over Ottawa

BC over Hamilton

And in our feature game:

The Bombers must win tonight to prove to their grumbling fan base that they belong in the conversation about Grey Cup contenders. Stamps are on a 3 game win streak, Bombers, not so much.  It would be easy to make the case for a Stamps victory based on that alone but I’m going with home field advantage for this one.  Looking for a bounce back game by the Bomber defense and passing attack.

Winnipeg 32  Calgary 31

Corbett Report Stats so far:

CFL overall        21-10 (68% – Hey it got me through Dryden High)

Bomber games     5-2

CHEERS!

 

Be sure to check out jcorbettreport.com and follow us on twitter @jcorbettreport