The Corbett Report, September 27, 2019

Introduction

So I get the angst of many Bomber fans (and share much of it) after last week’s meltdown in Montreal.  A first half in which the Bombers could do nothing wrong (34-10 lead) followed by a second half where they could do nothing right (37-38 final score).  I get the suggestions that this team will not win the cup this year.  That they rely too much on Andrew Harris.  That the secondary is susceptible to the big play.  That they’re often outcoached.  I get all of that.  I wonder though, how much of that angst and anger comes from the 29 year Grey Cup drought.  Could Bomber fans, simply not know how to accept a winning team? Always expecting the worst? Waiting for the implosion?  There are 5 games left this season of which 3 are at home where the Bombers are undefeated this year and yet I’ve seen predictions that the Bombers will lose every game for the rest of the season and end up a mediocre 9-9 and bow out of the playoffs in the semifinal game. Are you kidding me? Yeah, last week’s second half was an unmitigated disaster but look to the positives.  They scored on their first four possessions last week.  They lead the league in points scored.  They’re second in points allowed.  Oh yeah, and their record is a division leading 9-4.  I’d say that’s a pretty decent position to be in as they head into the most difficult, and important part of the season.

Should the Bombers be concerned about last week’s meltdown?  Of course they should.  But there’s lots of football to be played and there should be no easy path to winning a championship.  The next 5 games will be challenging and ultimately define the Bomber team of 2019. The loss of Matt Nichols for the season now provides Chris Streveler an opportunity to guide this team to the elusive promised land.  That’s a heavy burden to put on a young QB but look at what’s been happening in Hamilton. It can happen in Bomberville.  My glass isn’t half full.  It’s totally full, with Champagne, ready to toast the 2019 Grey Cup champs.

Welcome to week 16.  Welcome to the Corbett Report.

The Standings

WEST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against
Winnipeg	9	4	18	392	266
Calgary	9	4	18	349	280
Saskatchewan	8	4	16	320	278
Edmonton	6	7	12	317	286
BC	3	10	6	290	354
EAST
Team	Wins	Losses	Pts	For	Against
Hamilton	10	3	20	384	263
Montreal	7	5	14	316	314
Ottawa	3	10	6	222	401
Toronto	12	2	4	240	388

I’ve been saying all along that the Bombers’ season will likely come down to the home and home series against Calgary at the end of the year, but with last week’s loss and Sask definitely in the first place mix it will likely come down to beating Sask AND splitting the season series with Calgary.  That scenario would leave the Bombers with the tiebreaker against both Calgary and Sask.

The Bombers

Here’s my take on last week’s meltdown.  In the first half, the Als consistently went deep with the ball.  The Bombers secondary were spot on many times and broke up the big play forcing the Als’ offense off the field.  Meanwhile the offense let the defense rest up after those big plays by hogging the ball.  In the second half, with the offense struggling and the Als continuing to throw deep, the defense became shell-shocked and just couldn’t keep up their performance of the first half.  Throw in a missed convert and a missed field goal and voila the game quickly slipped away.

Regardless of the reason, there is a trend of giving up leads to supposedly weaker teams when on the road (hello Toronto!).  It’s lead to a 2-4 record on the road and is obviously a concern to the Bombers and their fans alike.  All the more reason for them to win the West and get the much coveted home field advantage for the Western final.

At home it’s been a different story. The Bombers have been solid in all of their games and shown no difficulty in playing to the final whistle.

This week, it’s Streveler again at the controls (unless they want to start Darwin Adams at QB).  His passing game has been improving, and with Andrew Harris in the line up the offense is capable of beating anyone.  It’s the defense that’s a possible concern.  In Brandon Banks, the Ti-Cats have, I believe, the league’s best receiver.  If Dane Evans can have half the game that Vernon Adams Jr had last week (488 yards passing, 4 TDs and 1 Int) and find Brandon Banks deep, it could be a long game for the Bombers secondary.  It’ll be up to the Bombers’ defensive line to pressure Evans to see that he doesn’t have time to make that happen.

The Ti-Cats

When the Cats lost Jeremiah Masoli in week 7 most of the CFL prognosticators predicted a swift decline in Hamilton and pretty much wrote the Cats off as Grey Cup contenders.  Fast forward to week 16 and lo and behold the Cats have the best record in the league at 10-3, are second only to the Bombers in points scored and lead the league with the fewest points allowed. This is a solid team that beat the Bombers in week 7 (23-15) and have only lost to Montreal, Saskatchewan and Calgary (that game a 1 point loss when a potential game winning field goal was blocked).  They’re solid on both sides of the ball and with Brandon Banks in the line up have a formidable offense.  On the defensive side of the ball, Simoni Lawrence leads a sold group that could give the young Bomber QB headaches.

The Bombers are in for a tough game tonight.

Keys to the game

So with all of that said, here are the keys to the game:

For the Bombers to win

• I’d suggest “play for 60 minutes” isn’t even a cliché for the Bombers after what happened last week
• Get rid of the ball quickly.  Streveler had “happy feet” on the Bombers final drive last week, perhaps showing some of his inexperience
• Limit Brandon Banks big plays

 For the Ti-Cats to win

• Whether they’ll admit it or not, the Bombers might be just a bit nervous coming into this game; if the Ti-Cats score early it could rattle the Bomber psyche
• Exploit the Bombers’ secondary by going deep often
• Limit Andrew Harris’ production as a receiver out of the backfield

The predictions

Picks

Edmonton over Ottawa

Sask over Toronto

BC over Montreal

And in our feature game:

At the start of the year, this game was being hailed as a 2019 Grey Cup matchup.  Now with both Masoli and Nichols out for the year there are many skeptics who are going . . . yeah right!  But hey, 9-4 vs 10-3 is nothing that can be easily dismissed.  There’s depth on both of these teams.  Tonight though?  Home cooking puts the Bombers back on the winning track.

Winnipeg 30  Hamilton 22

Corbett Report Stats so far:

CFL overall        41-16 (72%)

Bomber games     9-4  (69%)

CHEERS!