The Corbett Report, November 6, 2021

Introduction

Lots of dancing in Bomber nation two weeks ago as the Bombers clinched first place in the west, securing the Western Final in Winnipeg on December 5^th. In most years, clinching first place during the second last week of October would not be considered unusual. Typically, it would mean locking up first place with 1 or 2 games left. This year though? Well, in a year that’s anything but usual, the Bombers clinched first place in the west with a whopping 4 weeks (3 games) left in the season. 

Too soon, maybe? History will tell you that a team clinching first with 3 games remaining often gets to the Grey Cup (but not always), often wins the Grey Cup (but not always – only about 50% of the time). So, while there’s lots to dance about this month, the Grand Ball of 2021 doesn’t begin until . . . wait for it . . .  DECEMBER.

In the meantime, the Bombers must guard against complacency, injuries, and sheer boredom. It begins tonight with a solid opponent in the Alouettes. It’s the last home game for the Bombers until December 5^th, and while meaningless in the standings, it’ll go a long way towards revealing what the month of November (and indeed December) will hold for the team and their fans.

Welcome to week 14. Welcome to the Corbett Report.

Standings (as of November 6, 2021)

WEST DIVISION

RK	TEAM	GP	W	L	T	PTS	F	A	HOME	AWAY	DIV
1	Winnipeg y	11	10	1	0	20	304	126	6-0-0	4-1-0	8-0-0
2	Saskatchewan x	12	8	4	0	16	258	236	4-2-0	4-2-0	4-4-0
3	Calgary	12	6	6	0	12	269	228	2-4-0	4-2-0	4-4-0
4	BC	12	4	8	0	8	246	308	1-4-0	3-4-0	1-6-0
5	Edmonton	11	2	9	0	4	199	299	0-7-0	2-2-0	2-5-0

EAST DIVISION

RK	TEAM	GP	W	L	T	PTS	F	A	HOME	AWAY	DIV
1	Toronto x	11	7	4	0	14	248	273	5-0-0	2-4-0	4-2-0
2	Hamilton x	12	7	5	0	14	276	210	4-2-0	3-3-0	4-3-0
3	Montreal x	11	6	5	0	12	279	241	2-3-0	4-2-0	5-2-0
4	Ottawa	12	2	10	0	4	185	343	1-5-0	1-5-0	0-6-0

Still lots to be decided in the last 3 weeks of the season.  In the West, it’s looking like Calgary and Saskatchewan will be battling it out for the right to host the West Semi-final. With two games against the Elk upcoming, Saskatchewan likely has the edge there.

In the East, any of the top three teams could finish first. Next week’s Toronto vs. Hamilton game will likely decide that.

Bombers

In Bomber land, the 2019 season and now the 2021 season are the culmination of the hard work of the “Canadian Mafia”: Wade Miller, Mike O’Shea and Kyle Waters.  Under the guidance of these three men, the Bombers have gone from a team that was a perennial also-ran to a team for which players love to play.  Take for example, two players who will be joining the team this week after brief stints in the CFL. Sergio Castello and Winston Rose could have signed anywhere but both considered rejoining the Bombers as a “no-brainer”. Castello will shore up the Bombers kicking game and Rose, the 2019 interception leader, will make the Bombers’ formidable defence even stronger.

Out for this game is Andrew Harris. Back in 2019 the loss of Harris would have been considered devasting for the Bombers. A game changer. This year, the emergence of Brady Oliveira means the Bombers barely miss a beat in the run game.

On defence, the Bombers are allowing a measly 11.5 points per game and are coming off a 45-0 shut out against BC.  This week, however, will be a significant challenge for the defence as Montreal is second in the league in scoring and have a formidable run game with William Standback leading the league in rushing, having rushed for over 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games.  The Bomber defence hasn’t always had the best of outings against a solid run attack. Spoiler alert, slowing William Standback will be one of the keys to game.

Alouettes

The Als are 3^rd in the East but only 2 points out of first.  Even without their starting QB Vernon Adams, they’ve managed to win 4 of their last 5 games. This week sees the debut of Trevor Harris as their starting QB.  Recently acquired from Edmonton, Harris provides some much-needed experience at the quarterback position.  This team, though, is really all about William Standback. Stop Standback and you stop the Als.

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Don’t get complacent. Keep the “one game at a time” mentality going.

• Make Standback stand back

• Pressure Trevor Harris

For the Alouettes to win

• Score a TD early to gain some confidence

• Win the turnover game

• Standback needs another 100+ yard game

The record

Corbett report predictions record this year:

                        CFL                             27 – 23 (54%)

                        Bombers only                9 – 3 (75%)

The predictions

Friday I went with Hamilton over BC and Saskatchewan over Edmonton.

Today, let’s go with Toronto over Ottawa and in our featured game:

It would not be surprising if this home and home series against the Alouettes is a split for the Bombers, but it’s hard not to pick the Bombers at home.

Bombers 28 Alouettes 25