2021 Divisional finals

Introduction

It’s been 42 days since the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have played a meaningful football game. Since that game they’ve gone 1-2 in meaningless games and spent much of their time watching the play of other teams.  It’s bound to be on the mind of some Bomber fans that complacency may have set in. Not to mention that after dispatching the Riders in the Labour Day/Banjo Bowl series with a combined score of 56-17, it would be easy for the Bombers to think that all they have to do on Sunday is show up at IG Field.  Indeed, on paper this game is a mismatch. News alert though, football games aren’t played on paper and the Bombers are well advised to not read the press clippings and to listen to their coach.  Having listened to Mike O’Shea throughout his playing and coaching career, I’m pretty sure that he’s going to have the troops ready for this one.

Welcome to the playoff edition of the Corbett Report.

Season Series

As mentioned, the Bombers dominated the Riders this season, winning 23-8 on Labour Day and 33-9 in the Banjo Bowl.  The domination was in all aspects of the game. Consider this:

In the two-game series between the two teams,

• Bombers won the turnover battle 9 – 2
• Bombers won the yardage game 795 total yards – 673 total yards
• Bombers won the time of possession 65 min – 55 min
• Bombers sacked Rider QBs 7 times vs. 2 by Sask against the Bombers

It’s pretty easy to see why the Bombers are 8 ½ point favourites in the game.

The Bombers

During the Bombers’ 2019 run to the Grey Cup it was largely about the defence.  On offence, though, it was all about running the ball.  Andrew Harris was the star in that department, being named both the Grey Cup MVP and most outstanding Canadian. Fast forward to 2021 and the Bombers D is still dominating games, allowing an average of just 13.4 points per game.  On offence, though, the focus has moved away from the running game in favour of passing.  Zach Collaros, the Western nominee for MOP, passed for 3,185 yards in just 13 games. While that’s a pedestrian average of 245 yards per game, what isn’t pedestrian is a TD/INT ratio of 20 – 6.  The ability of Collaros to protect the ball is a large reason that the Bombers rolled over opponents in 2021.

Meanwhile, Andrew Harris played in only 7 games in 2021 and hasn’t played in a game since October. He’s listed as a gametime decision for the Western Final and the question that needs to be asked is whether he should play even if healthy.  Brady Oliveira and Johnny Augustine have filled in admirably in Harris’ absence.

The Riders

The Riders cast themselves as the Rodney Dangerfield of the CFL. In spite of their 9-5 record, they seem to struggle for respect.  Nowhere is that more obvious than the assessment of the play of their starting QB Cody Fajardo.  The mantra seems to be that he’s just not good enough to win “the big one”. That mantra may have some basis in fact.  Recall the pass to the upright in last year’s final. And just last week, Fajardo threw a whooping 4 interceptions as the Riders repeatedly shot themselves in the football in spite of holding on for a double OT victory against the Stampeders.

The Riders will need to up their game if they hope to win against the Bombers this week.

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Get an early big play on defence to prove that they’ve shaken off the rust
• Have a lead at the half (Bombers have been totally dominant in the 2^nd half of games)
• Keep Collaros upright

For the Riders to win

• Win the turnover game (4 interceptions won’t win you many games)
• Pressure Collaros
• Win the line of scrimmage (good luck with that)

The weather

This will be the latest football game ever played in Winnipeg and of course with that comes the discussion of the weather. Current forecast calls for a temperature of -5 at gametime but dropping throughout the game.  By midnight Sunday the temperature will have plummeted to -22.  Here’s hoping most of the temperature drop is after the end of the game. Oh yeah, and there’s snow in the forecast.

Advantage: Winnipeg via the run game.

The prediction

After a rough start, the Corbett report put together a pretty good season ending with a record of 61-18 (77%) for the league overall. For just the Bombers, the record was 11-3 (78%).

This week in the East, let’s go with the Ti-Cats over the Argos. 23 – 20.

Sunday’s game will be the first Western final played in Winnipeg in 42 years.  Granted, there’s been a few Eastern finals during that stretch, but this is the first Western final in a very long time to be played in Winnipeg.  The Riders come to town as the heavy underdogs and I’m thinking they’ll live up to that billing. The Bombers are going to come out flying and in the end they’ll dominate the game.  Go with:

Bombers 31 Riders 15