The Corbett Report, October 8, 2022

Introduction

Okay, last week was a bit of tease.  Now it’s REALLY time to bring out the “Frost is on the Pumpkin” cliché.  You know, the one that goes “the Frost is on the Pumpkin and football games have even greater meaning”.  Truth be told, October games of late for the Bombers have been all about positioning in the standings, not about making the playoffs.  Not since 2015 have the Bombers missed the playoffs. This year, as it was last year, October games are all about clinching first place early and allowing key players to rest. It’s a far cry from how the Bombers were a decade ago when October meant just staying in the hunt for a playoff position.

This year, clinching first place could come down to the final two games of the season against BC.  A win in either of those games means the Bombers clinch first, regardless of what happens against the Elks this weekend.  So, does that make this week’s game meaningless? Not exactly. A win over the Elks could also get the Bombers first place, but only if the Lions lose to the Argos in the game right before the Bombers take the field.

Personally, I’m hoping that first place does come down to the BC games.  I’d rather see the Bombers playing meaningful games right to the end of the season.  Who can forget last year when the Bombers clinched early and then lost their final two games.  You all remember how THAT scenario turned out!

I still think that it’s important to remain sharp, and playing meaningful games right to end ensures that.  Besides, as they say, “it’s good for the League”. 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Welcome to week 8, welcome to the Corbett Report.

Standings E WEST DIVISION

WeWWEST DIVISION

RK	TEAM	GP	W	L	T	PTS	F	A	HOME	AWAY	DIV
1	Winnipeg x	15	13	2	0	26	434	310	6-1-0	7-1-0	8-0-0
2	BC x	14	10	4	0	20	425	312	5-3-0	5-1-0	6-3-0
3	Calgary x	15	10	5	0	20	462	331	4-3-0	6-2-0	5-5-0
4	Saskatchewan	15	6	9	0	12	342	390	3-5-0	3-4-0	3-6-0
5	Edmonton	15	4	11	0	8	306	492	0-7-0	4-4-0	1-9-0

EAST DIVISION

RK	TEAM	GP	W	L	T	PTS	F	A	HOME	AWAY	DIV
1	Toronto x	14	8	6	0	16	335	321	4-3-0	4-3-0	6-2-0
2	Montreal	14	7	7	0	14	363	355	4-3-0	3-4-0	3-3-0
3	Hamilton	14	4	10	0	8	315	384	4-3-0	0-7-0	3-5-0
4	Ottawa	14	3	11	0	6	283	370	0-7-0	3-4-0	2-4-0

The most important game of the weekend is on Friday night.  Saskatchewan can clinch a crossover with a win against Hamilton.  A Hamilton win, though, brings them to within 2 points of the Riders, and with the Cats final two games against Ottawa, there’s a chance that they may just salvage the season and leave the Riders on the sidelines in November.

Bombers

October 5^th was the trade deadline in the CFL.  Anyone who thought the Bombers would be content with their current line up would have been mistaken.  Obviously concerned about injuries and a lack of consistent play in the secondary, the Bombers went out and executed a trade with Hamilton for Alden Darby Jr.  How significant is this?  Darby playing for the Bombers last year was a West Division all-star and a key on defense in the playoffs, registering 8 tackles, 1 sack and 1 pass knockdown as the Bombers secured their second Grey Cup in two seasons.  Then there’s confirmation that a trade was in place to get Kenny Lawler back into a Blue and Gold uniform. It didn’t happen after Lawler went out with an injury, but it goes to show us that, to no one’s surprise, the Bombers are clearly all in for another run at the cup.

It’s interesting to compare this year’s Bombers to last year’s.  The 2022 version of the Bombers vs. the 2021 version.  Consider these stats:

            Points scored:    2021 average 26,  2022 average 29

            Points against:   2021 average 13,  2022 average 21

Clearly, the 2022 edition of the Bombers is relying less on their defense than the 2021 edition.  Drilling down on the stats reveals even more interesting numbers.  The Bombers have scored more than 30 points in 6 of their last 8 games.  During that same period, they allowed an average of 25 points against including the 48 points against given up a couple of weeks back against Hamilton.

That’s not to say the defense isn’t still strong.  The Bombers have allowed the fewest points in the league through 15 games, but it’s nice to see the offense putting up some big numbers as well. 

The Elks

The second coming of Chris Jones isn’t going according to plan.  This once mighty franchise is a shadow of its former self, and Jones’ arrival has done nothing to turn that around.  In Edmonton it’s all being blamed on the name change.  Personally, I think it’s got more to do with the players that are on the field, but hey, who knows.  What is clear though, is the Elks simply aren’t a very good team.  Consider this, they’re last or second last in the following categories:

• Points scored
• Points allowed
• Touchdowns allowed
• Offensive yards
• Sacks allowed
• Turnovers
• Interceptions given up

Need I go on?

Still, the Elks aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoff race but they’d need to win all of their games and have Saskatchewan lose all of theirs in order to squeak into the playoffs.  With the Riders playing on Friday night, the Elks could very well be eliminated from playoff contention by the time they take to the field on Saturday.  Either way, it’s almost sad to see how the Green and Gold have fallen from being the class of the league to, well, being not so much.

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Don’t overlook your opponent. 
• D-Line needs to up it’s game and pressure Cornelius Taylor
• Win the turnover battle (Bombers are +14 on the season)

For the Elks to win

• Hang onto the ball! (Elks are -16 on the season)
• Pressure Collaros
• Get a big play on special teams (maybe a punt return TD?)

The record

Corbett report predictions so far this year:

                        CFL                                         31 – 34  (48.0%)

                        Bombers only                         11 – 4    (73.0%)

The predictions

So, if you’re betting on games this week might I refer you to the Corbett Report record on the year.  Essentially, don’t do what I say.  However, I must soldier on, so let’s go with:

            Hamilton keeps their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Riders

            BC stops the Bombers from clinching first with a win over the Argos

            Montreal adds to Ottawa’s nightmare season with a win at home

And in our feature game:

There once was a time when the Bombers would shiver in their helmets when Edmonton was coming up on the schedule.  With six consecutive wins against the Elk since 2019, those days are gone.  Bombers are 13.5 point favourites in this one.  I think it’ll be closer than that, but it will be yet another Bomber home victory.

Bombers 28 Elk 20

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