The Corbett Report, October 28, 2022

Introduction

Flashback

It’s week 12 of the 2022 CFL season.  The CFL writers (aka – the Golden Retrievers) are trying to summarize the season to date.  Here’s the conversation:

GR #1:  Zach Collaros is starting off with a great completion record. 

GR #2   How about that Bo Levi, he hasn’t missed a step. 

GR #3:  Think the Bombers will go undefeated this year?

GR #4:  LOOK A SQUIRREL

The Squirrel of course would be Nathan Rourke.  The BC Lions Canadian QB phenom who in the eyes of many was a shoe-in for MVP even before the Labour Day games were played.  He was the shiny thing catching the eye of every CFL follower (or at least the media-not this media, but you know, the “other media”).  Consider these headlines from the first half of the season:

            Week 1: Rourke feasts (on Elks) in Lions season opener (59-15 win)

            Week 3: Rourke leads Lions over Argos in historic night (44-3 win)

            Week 4: Rourke leads undefeated Lions past Redblacks (34-31 win)

            Week 6: Rourke shines as Lions Rally past Riders (32-17 win)

And on and on it went.  Now, I’m not going to cast disparaging remarks the way of Nathan Rourke.  There is no doubt that he was lighting up the league when he went out in week 11 with what at the time appeared to be a season ending foot injury, but I don’t believe a 9-game resume is quite enough to earn the label the GOAT.  Certainly, his stats through the first half of the Lions’ season were impressive.  A 79% completion rate, a 25:10 TD/Interception ratio, an average of 365 yards passing per game are all heady numbers and certainly worth many of the accolades thrown his way through the first half of the season. Drill down a bit though and here are few other stats worth noting:

In leading the Lions to their 8-1 record before going out with an injury, Rourke and the Lions managed the following:

• They won 8 games but only 2 were against teams that ended up with winning records
• The combined record of the teams that they managed to beat was 43 – 60
• They beat Edmonton (4-14) twice
• They beat Saskatchewan (6-11) twice

All of which segues nicely into one of the headlines that isn’t referenced above:

• Week 5: Bombers move past Lions to remain undefeated (43-22 loss)

Welcome to week 9, welcome to the Corbett Report.

Standings

 

WEST DIVISION

RK	TEAM	GP	W	L	T	PTS	F	A	HOME	AWAY	DIV
1	Winnipeg y	17	14	3	0	28	514	361	7-1-0	7-2-0	9-1-0
2	BC x	17	12	5	0	24	516	381	6-3-0	6-2-0	8-3-0
3	Calgary x	17	11	6	0	22	526	387	4-4-0	7-2-0	6-5-0
4	Saskatchewan	17	6	11	0	12	377	440	3-6-0	3-5-0	3-7-0
5	Edmonton	18	4	14	0	8	354	599	0-9-0	4-5-0	1-11-0

EAST DIVISION

RK	TEAM	GP	W	L	T	PTS	F	A	HOME	AWAY	DIV
1	Toronto y	17	11	6	0	22	410	387	5-3-0	6-3-0	7-2-0
2	Montreal x	17	8	9	0	16	438	433	4-5-0	4-4-0	4-5-0
3	Hamilton x	17	7	10	0	14	398	457	6-3-0	1-7-0	4-5-0
4	Ottawa	17	4	13	0	8	364	452	0-8-0	4-5-0	3-6-0

y – Clinched Division
x – Clinched Playoff Berth

It’s unfortunate that there’s nothing at stake in the standings this week. Guess the only drama will be what Nathan Rourke will do (insert eye-roll)!

Bombers

Not sure what’s left to said about the Bombers in 2022, but I’ll try and sum it up with the following:

• Well-disciplined
• Well-coached
• Workmanlike
• Efficient
• Determined
• Enthusiastic

You get the picture.  So, they must be rolling their eyes a bit when they hear that the return of Nathan Rourke makes BC the odds-on favourite to win the Grey Cup.  ARE YOU KIDDING ME???  Anyone thinking that way hasn’t followed Mike O’Shea’s gang these past 3 years.  We won’t find out tonight who’s going to win the Cup this year.  In fact, I dare say we won’t even get a hint at that.  That’ll all be decided in two weeks in the Western final.  Tonight, it’ll be about giving the vets some reps before the bye week and allowing everyone to get or be healthy by the 13^th of November.

I’d expect to see Collaros for maybe a quarter, or hey, just for fun, for as long as Rourke’s in the game.  Same with other veterans.  Many sat two weeks ago and if they don’t play tonight that’ll amount to a four week break before their next meaningful game.  That’s just too long.

The Lions

BC is all in a tither about the return of Nathan Rourke, for good reason, too.  The Lion’s were 8-1 when he went down with his injury (the “1” of course being the aforementioned loss to the Bombers).  Since then they’ve gone 4-4 to end the season at 12-5.  They’d be advised to not think that Rourke alone can get the job done for them.  They’ll need continued solid play from their defense (second only to the Bombers in points allowed) and exceptional special teams play in order to advance to the Grey Cup.  If I were the Bombers, or even the casual Bomber fan that I am, it should be the Lions that scare me the most going into the playoffs.

Expect Nathan Rourke to see a quarter of playing time as well.  After that, who knows who will be on the field.  As with the Bombers, we won’t see the real Lions team until the playoffs arrive.

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Retain focus
• Avoid the “big passes” by Rourke while he’s in the game
• Win the turnover battle

For the Lions to win

• Have the lead when the starting QBs head for the sidelines
• Turnovers are key (remember two weeks ago)
• Get a special teams TD

The record

Corbett report predictions so far this year:

                        CFL                                         38 – 39  (50.0% ish)

                        Bombers only                         13 – 4    (76.0%)

The predictions

It’s so hard to predict the outcome of games when you don’t know who’s going to be on the fields, but let’s go with:

• Hamilton puts the Redblacks out of their misery (Hamilton over Ottawa)
• Argos send their 4 fans home happy with a win over the Alouettes (Toronto over Montreal)
• Bo-Levi gets a TD pass in his last game with the Stamps as they defeat the Riders (Calgary over Saskatchewan)

And in our feature game:

There’s not a lot at stake this week but two things suggest a Bomber victory.  Namely:

• They don’t want to go into the playoffs having lost twice in a row to the Lions
• They want to send their fans home happy with a win

So let’s end the regular season with:

Bombers 28 Lions 20

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