The Corbett Report, November 19, 2023

Posted on November 19, 2023

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Introduction

Greetings from Hamilton where the host city has certainly gone out of their way to make Grey Cup revelers feel welcomed.  600 volunteers have made sure that every little detail has been looked after and it’s made for a wonderfully enjoyable Grey Cup weekend.  All the fun and frivolity ends today though with the 110th edition of the game.  So much has already been said about how the day is going to unfold.  Such as, Montreal needs another strong defensive performance, they need to stop the Bomber run game, they need a special teams TD, etc. etc.  All valid points.  Not quite as insightful as the Corbett Report prediction though.

Welcome to the final week of the 2023 season.  Welcome to the Corbett Report.

Head to head

The Bombers and Als faced each other twice this year;

On August 24, in Winnipeg it was 47-17 for the Bombers

On July 1, in Montreal it was 17-3 for the Bombers

Comparing the teams

Special teams

Montreal got a nice punt return touchdown last week and they’ll need a big play on “the teams” again this week.  Sergio Castillo missed two field goals last week but got away with it.  I’m giving Montreal the edge in this one.

Advantage: Montreal

On the line

The Bombers have feasted on Cody Fajardo over the past number of years.  Montreal gave up 7 sacks last week while Winnipeg got 9 against BC.  If the Bombers bring the pressure it could be a long evening for Fajardo.


Advantage: Winnipeg

Secondary

The Bomber secondary really stepped up last week limiting Vernon Adams to 221 yards passing and getting 3 interceptions.  Meanwhile, in Toronto, Montreal’s offense was anemic managing only 197 yards if net offence.  Everyone here’s been talking about Montreal’s defense.  Well guess what, there’s  a few players in blue and gold who might take exception to that.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Receiving

Even with last year’s rookie of the year Dalton Schoen out the Bomber still have the upper hand in this department.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Running game

It’s Oliveria vs. Stanback at the running back position.  Montreal’s ability to stop the Oliveria lead running attach of the Bombers will be key to any success they might have.  I’m not counting on that happening.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Quarterback

This one’s not even close.  Zach is starting in his 4th straight Grey Cup.  Fajardo, his first.  That alone gives Winnipeg the edge.   

Advantage: Winnipeg

Keys to the game

These have been beaten to death elsewhere, but may as well state the obvious:

For the Bombers to win

  • Play clean football – no turnovers
  • Pressure Fajardo – sack/sack/sack
  • Run the ball down the Als throat

For the Alouettes to win

  • Score early – have the lead at the half
  • Shut down the Bombers run game
  • Sack Zach

The prediction

Bombers are 7 ½ point favourites.  I don’t think they’ll cover the spread but they will take home their 3rd cup in 4 years.

Bombers 28 Alouettes 21

Be sure to check out jcorbettreport.com

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