The Corbett Report, September 27, 2024

Introduction

Flashback.  It’s August 1, 2024.  The Bombers enter a key matchup against the BC Lions.  Bombers are 2-6.  Lions are 5-2.  The game is pivotal.  Fall to 2-7 and the Bombers may as well fold up their tent and head home.  The result? A 25-0 victory by the Bombers.  Pivotal? That’s an understatement.  That game turned the season around for the Bombers and now they’re 8-6 and sit in first place in the West, two points up on the Lions who have fallen to 7-7.  Can you say “on a roll”? Not to throw too many numbers at you but since falling to 2-6 the Bombers are 6-0.  Included in that streak are back-to-back wins over BC.  Back-to-back wins over Saskatchewan.  And tonight? Perhaps back-to-back wins against the Elks.  No wonder tonight’s song is all about getting on a roll. 

It hasn’t always been pretty. Last week’s 3-point first half attests to that.  It has however been rather workmanlike and under head coach Mike O’Shea, who would have expected anything different?

Welcome to Week Seventeen.  Welcome to the Corbett Report.

Bombers

Tonight’s opening song references the “Chicken dance”.  Apparently, that’s what Brady Oliveria was trying to perform after his two touchdowns last week.  The two TDs were his first and second of the season which is rather amazing when you consider that he leads the league in rushing with 1,021 yards.  When analyzing the Bombers it’s clear that as Brady goes, so does the Bomber offense.  With Zach Collaros having a somewhat pedestrian year (at least by his MOP standards), the Bombers have been relying on Oliveria in the backfield for their offence.  Really though, it’s the Bomber defense that has assumed control and provided the identity for the 2024 rendition of the Bombers.  No one player (other than maybe Tyrell Ford with his league leading 6 interceptions) stands out for the defensive unit.  Collectively though, they’ve allowed the fewest points of any team in the CFL with 288 points allowed.  Again, with the math, that’s 20.6 points per game.  You’re going to win lots of games in the CFL allowing that few points.

Elks

After the firing of Chris Jones and the decision to start QB Tre Ford, the Elks seemed to have turned a corner.  A sweep against Calgary in the Labour Day game and subsequent rematch gave Elks fans reason to believe.  Then along came the Bombers.  Now, the Elks once again look to be in disarray.  No more than at QB where they seemed to have abandoned the Tre Ford experiment and returned to McLeod Bethel-Thompson as their starter.  Both QB’s have decent numbers.  Particularly Bethel-Thompson who has 19 TDs compared to only 9 interceptions. 

It’s not on offence though that the Elks have been losing games.  In fact, they lead the league with 399 points.  Their downfall has been on D where they’ve developed a habit of giving up late leads enroute to their 9 losses.

Whoever is at QB this week though won’t matter.  Not against the stingy Bomber defense. 

Standings

Team	GP	W	L	T	Pts	Pts for	Pts Against
West
Winnipeg	14	8	6	0	16	322	288
BC	14	7	7	0	14	352	350
Saskatchewan	14	6	7	1	13	370	359
Edmonton	14	5	9	0	10	399	369
Calgary	14	4	9	1	9	330	418
East
Montreal	14	11	2	1	23	375	300
Ottawa	14	8	5	1	17	347	371
Toronto	14	7	7	0	14	395	375
Hamilton	14	5	9	0	10	380	440

Fun fact: The Bombers can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight and their magic number for clinching 1^st is 3.  Any combination of Bomber wins or Lions losses that totals 3 will result in the Bombers once again hosting the Western final.

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

.

• Keep on rolling
• Pressure MBT
• More Chicken Dances

For the Elks to win

• Win the line of scrimmage
• Get a TD from special teams
• Win the turnover battle

The Record

All games                    32 – 31

Bomber games            7 – 7

The predictions

Two road team victories on Saturday and two home team victories on Friday this week.  In BC it’ll be BC over Hamilton.  In Regina it’ll be Ottawa over Saskatchewan and in Toronto it’ll be Montreal over Toronto.  Which leaves us with one more home team victory and it’ll be tonight.

Bombers 30

 Elks 13

Be sure to check out jcorbettreport.com