The Corbett Report, November 17, 2024

Introduction

Well, here we are. Vancouver in 2024 and for the 5th consecutive season that the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are representing the West in the Grey Cup. A rematch of the 2022 contest. Hard to imagine that the Bombers have been able to navigate the mine field that was the highly competitive Western Division in 2024. After their 2-6 start to the season, it’s almost unfathomable that the Bombers are here. Yet here they be. The question now is: can they break their two game losing streak at the big game and make it 3 victories in 5 years? We’ll know for sure Sunday afternoon. But there’s lots of partying before then ‘cause after all, for CFL football fans, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year.

Welcome to the Grey Cup 2024. Welcome to the Corbett Report.

History lesson

Let’s start with a bit of history. Toronto and Winnipeg have met 7 times in the history of the Grey Cup. Fun fact: The Bomber have never defeated the Argos in any of those games!

Here’s the history”

1937 – Toronto 4 Winnipeg 3
1938 – Toronto 30 Winnipeg 7
1942 – Toronto 8 Winnipeg 5
1945 – Toronto 35 Winnipeg 0
1946 – Toronto 28 Winnipeg 6
1950 – Toronto 13 Winnipeg 0

Then, the two teams don’t meet again until 2022 when Chad Kelly leads a late drive that results in an Argo field goal and a 24 – 23 victory.

Meanwhile, in more recent history, the Argos are the only team in 2024 that the Bombers were unable to beat. Losing in overtime on July 27th 16-14 and losing in Winnipeg on October 11th 14 – 11.

So safe to say that the Bombers should hardly come in feeling that they’ve got the Argos number (the way they seem to have the Riders number).

Matchup

Let’s break the game down on a position-by-position basis and see who’s going to come out on top. Starting with:

Secondary

Bombers lead the league in 2024 with the fewest passing yards allowed averaging 234.8 per game. By contrast, the Argos were 8th in this category allowing an average of 296.8 The duo of Tyrell Ford and Evan Holm are a formidable force in defending against the pass.

Advantage: Bombers

Defensive Line

Bombers at one time would have ruled this category, but not so much this year. The Bombers this year finished dead last in sacks made (26) whereas Toronto lead the league with 48. 12 of those sacks came against the Bombers. If the Argos are to have a chance in this game, it’ll depend on the pressure that the Argos D-Line puts on Collaros.

Advantage: Argos

Receivers

The Bombers receiving corps was decimated early in the year with injuries to Dalton Schoen and Drew Wolitarsky. Ontaria Wilson stepped up admirably, and what can you say about Kenny Lawler’s performance last week? Nic Demski continues to play solidly as well. The Argos crew are capable of big plays as well, particularly Makai Polk and Damonte Coxie but overall, the Argos receivers are outclassed by the Bomber group.

Advantage: Bombers

Offensive Line

It’s been an up and down kind of season on the O-Line for the Bombers. The question for me here is which O-Line shows up on Sunday. Will it be the sad-sack (pun intended) crew that gave up 7 sacks to the Argos on October 11th or the stellar crew that allowed ZERO sacks against the Riders last week. If it’s the latter, and they can hold back the Toronto D-Line rush, then victory will become much easier for the Bombers. Interesting to note: The Bombers allowed a total of 36 sacks against in 2024. 12 of them were in the two games they played the Argos.

I have a feeling the veteran group of O-Line men will come to play for the Bombers this week.

Advantage: Bombers

Running back

Surprisingly the Bombers finished just 3rd in overall yardage. In the back field for the Bombers is Brady Oliveria. Enough said.

Advantage: Bombers

Kickers

Both teams have solid kicking games. Some of the kicks Sergio Castillo made from outside the 50 yard line in 2024 were just bonkers, including the 53-yarder that secured the Bombers home field advantage in the season finale against Montreal. For Toronto, Lirim Hajrullahu is a solid kicker. So maybe this category is a toss up, but just to give Argo fans some hope, let’s say:

Advantage: Argos

Returners

This one isn’t even close. Anyone heard of Janarion Grant?

Advantage: Argos

Quarterbacks

Had Chad Kelly not been injured in the Eastern Final this category might have been close. With Nick Arbuckle starting, the advantage would seem to be with the Bombers. Collaros may not have had the MOP year we’re used to seeing him have but wow, did you see that Western Final? Given time, Collaros will pick apart the Argos secondary.

Advantage: Bombers

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win
.
• O-Line keeps Zach upright
• Defense gets into Nick Arbuckle’s head
• Don’t give up the big return

For the Argos to win

• Pressure Zach (match their regular season sack total against the Bombers and they’ve got it)
• Get a TD from special teams (Grant breaks one)
• Win the turnover battle

Really, there’s only two keys. Can the Argos get pressure on Zach and will Grant break one?

The Predictions

If the Bombers have learned anything in the past 4 Grey Cup appearances, it should be that what happens in the regular season doesn’t necessarily translate into success in the off season, and that being the favourite doesn’t count for anything. In both of their two losses in the Grey Cup the Bombers have entered the 4th quarter with a lead, only to have it slip away, and having Toronto (2022) and Montreal (2023) rally to win in the final few minutes. Let’s hope they’ve learned a lesson from that. I’m betting that they have.

    Winnipeg 33 Toronto 24

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