The Corbett Report, 2022 Grey Cup

Introduction

Ho-hum.  Another year, another Grey Cup appearance by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  You’d think that in a league that has only nine teams, repeat appearances in the Championship game would be pretty commonplace.  Not so, though.  The CFL came into existence on January 19, 1958.  Since then, the Grey Cup has been awarded to the league champions 63 times.  In that stretch only 4 times has one of the participating teams been there for a 3^rd time in a row.  Edmonton holds the record in consecutive appearances having appeared three times in a row from 1973 to 1975 and then six times in a row from 1977 to 1982. For the math-challenged, that means Edmonton appeared in 9 out of 10 games in the stretch from 1973 to 1982 (oh how the mighty have fallen). Other than Edmonton, only Hamilton (1984 to1986) and Montreal (2008 to 2010) have appeared in three consecutive games.  So the Bombers certainly could claim that they’re on the verge of a Dynasty!  Not that they’ll have any of that.  The humility that the coaches and management of this team have instilled on the players simply won’t let that happen. 

No, Sunday isn’t being viewed by the Bombers as an attempt at a three-peat.  For the Blue and Gold it’ll be just another game.  For the fans however . . . well now that’s a different story.

Welcome to the Grey Cup, welcome to the Corbett Report.

Grey Cup History

Here are some fun facts for you history buffs:

• The Grey Cup was first awarded in 1909 when the University of Toronto Varsity Blues defeated the Toronto Parkdale Canoe Club at Rosedale Field in Toronto before a capacity crowd of 3,807.

• A Winnipeg team first played in a Grey Cup game in 1925 when the Winnipeg Tammany Tigers lost 24-1 to the Ottawa Senators at Lansdowne Park.

• The first time a team from Winnipeg played against a Toronto team was in 1937 when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers lost to the Toronto Argonauts 4 – 3 (not sure why the Bombers didn’t pull their goalie in that one).

• Among active CFL teams, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have the most Grey Cup appearances with 26 followed by the Toronto Argonauts and Edmonton Elks with 23 each. 

• The Blue Bombers last played the Argos in the 1950 “Mud Bowl”.  The Argos defeated the Bombers 13-0. (Think about that.  It was 72 years ago . . . I wasn’t even born then!)

• Finally, how about these fun-filled names for teams that have competed for the Grey Cup:

• Winnipeg ‘Pegs (1935)
• Montreal AAA Winged Wheelers (1931)
• Hamilton Alerts (1912)
• Toronto Rowing Association (1915)
• Toronto Balmy Beach (1924, 1927 & 1930)
• Hamilton Flying Wildcats (1943)

Kind of makes the Redblacks seem like a normal name.

How they got here

Both teams in the 109^th Grey Cup won their respective divisions, but all similarities between the two seasons ends there.  The Bombers seemingly cruised to the top of the West division finishing with a 15-3 record and leading the league with the fewest points allowed (370) and the second highest points scored (538).  The Argos on the other hand, finished 11-7 which while good enough for 1^st in the East was actually only the 4^th place record overall in the league.  They often flirted with a 500 record throughout the year and only by virtue of ending the season with 3-1 stretch did they manage their respectable 11-7 record.  They’re also in the middle of the pack in points scored (5^th with 443) and points allowed (4^th with 425).

In the playoffs, the Argos capitalized early against Montreal, building a 14-3 1^st quarter lead and hanging on to win 34-27.

In the West, it seemed like the Bombers were determined to let the Lions into the game.  A fumbled punt leading to a Lions TD and two missed converts (one of which was returned by the Lions for 2 points) had the Bombers leaving points off the board.  As has become the trademark of this team however, they found a way to win and were well-deserved of their 28 – 20 victory.

Bombers vs. the Argos

Here’s a few of the key matchups to watch this game.

Quarterbacks

At the time of writing (Wednesday evening), Zach Collaros is still a go for starting the game although he didn’t practice Wednesday.  After limping off the field in the 4^th quarter of the Western final there was a collective gasp among the fans at IG Field.  If he can’t start or is ineffective due to his ankle injury the QB matchup becomes decidedly more even.

In Toronto, McLeod Bethel-Thompson is coming off his best game of the year.  He completed 70.4% of his passes for 299 yards.  2 TDs and 0 interceptions.  I gotta say, though, that his tirade on the sidelines in the 1^st quarter of the Eastern final really makes one question his ability to lead the Argos offense.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Running backs

The Eastern final was Andrew Harris’/ first game back since an early season injury and it sets up an interesting story line.  Before the start of the season Harris proclaimed that the 2022 season was all about proving the Bombers wrong for letting him go.  Can you say motivation?!

Meanwhile, back in Winnipeg,  Brady Oliveira overcame a mediocre start and finished 3^rd in the CFL in rushing, surpassing 1,000 yards.  His performance in the Western final (130 yards), affirms the Bombers decision to go with the younger Oliveira over Harris.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Kickers

Just when you thought it was safe to relax when the Bombers lined up to kick a convert, Marc Liegghio misses two in the Western Final.  What’s more, the second miss, was returned by the Lions for a two-point kick return (the first in playoff history).  So again, with the math, that’s a 4-point swing.  You gotta cut the kid some slack though, he did go 3-3 on field goals last week. 

In Toronto, Boris Bede provides a stable, veteran presence at the kickers position.

Advantage: Toronto

Kick returns

Brandon Banks is not what he used to be in this role.  Contrast that to Janarion Grant and the advantage goes to Winnipeg.  Grant led the league in punt returns averaging 12 yards a carry and returning 2 for touchdowns.  Fun fact, the rest of the league returners got a whopping total of 1 TD.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Defense

It was the Bombers defense that led them to the promised land in 2019 and 2021.  On a chilly November Sunday it could turn out that way again.  The Bombers on average gave up 21 points per game vs. Toronto’s 24.  Although the Bombers defense did not have the “over the top” performance that they had in 2019 and 2021,  they do seem to have a knack of getting the job done when it’s needed.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Discipline

This is the one stat that I’m sure Mike O’Shea prides himself on.  The Bombers took the fewest penalties per game on average (5.9 penalties for 109 yards per game) whereas the Argos sit in 7^th place in this stat (8.6 penalties per game for 155 yards).  Penalties can be game changers at the best time but the importance of discipline in a championship game can’t be overlooked.

Advantage: Winnipeg

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Pressure Thompson early
• Have a lead at the end of the 1^st quarter
• Establish the run

For the Argos to win

• Win the turnover battle
• Stop the Bombers run game
• Get a special teams TD

The record

Corbett report predictions this post season:

                        Playoffs                                  2 – 2  (50.0% )

                        Bombers only                         1 -0    (100.0%)

Oh yeah, this would be a good time to mention that last week’s Corbett report accurately predicted the final score.  Bombers 28 – Lions 20.  (So that’s like giving it 110%).

The predictions – CFL Player Awards

For the first time in the 30+ years of attending Grey Cups I’ll be taking in the player awards.  May as well give you those results too (Bomber players are bolded):

Most outstanding player:        Zach Collaros over Eugene Lewis

Defensive Player:                   Shawn Lemon over Lorenzo Mauldin IV

Canadian:                                Nathon Rourke over Kurleigh Gittens Jr

O-Line:                                   Stanley Bryant over Brandon Revenberg

Rookie                                    Dalton Schoen over Tyson Philpot

Special Teams:                       Chandler Worthy over Mario Alford

Coach:                                     Mike O’Shea over Ryan Dinwiddie

The prediction – the game

Sunday, November 20^th.  I’m looking for another solid performance by the Bomber defense as they get under the skin of McLeod Bethel-Thompson.  I’m also looking for Brady Oliveira to outrush Andrew Harris.  I don’t just make these predictions up though.  The numbers are crunched scientifically.  Here’s the math:

To get the Bombers point total, first note that the Bombers have the edge in 5 out of the 6 categories discussed above.  So if you take 5 and multiple by 10 and then subtract ½ of Zach Collaros’s age you get the Bombers with 33 points.  From that, take off the temperature at kick off (-5) and you’ll get the Bombers scoring 28. 

Now for Toronto, simply take the total number of Argo fans travelling to Regina to watch the Argos play and award one point per fan.  That would be 20.  The final score will therefore be:

Bombers 28 Argos 20

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