The Corbett Report, November 11, 2023

Introduction

Whether it be pundits with much greater wisdom than I, or in fact the Corbett Report itself, there have been many who have questioned whether the 2023 edition of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers still have what it takes to be Champions.  Indeed, coming off the bye week in October and facing the Argos and Lions back-to-back, it was pretty much a given that the Bombers reign as the league’s elite team was coming to an end (well at least that’s what social media said).  Too old, too slow, too complacent . . .  it was pretty much a forgone conclusion that the BC Lions would face the Argos in the 110^th Grey Cup.

Well, not so fast.  Bombers won both of those games and then finished the season with 2 more wins to end the season 14-4.  Two full games ahead of the Lions.

So here we are again.  The Western final, in Winnipeg. Bombers vs. the Lions.  A one-game winner-take-all contest to decide who goes to Hamilton for the 110^th Grey Cup.  Can the Bombers make it four trips in a row, or is 2023 the year that they simply “Fade Away”.  Well, it depends on who you talk to.  So let’s talk to the Corbett Report.

Welcome to the Western Final edition of the Corbett Report.

Final Standings

Team	GP	W	L	Pts	Pts for	Pts Against
West
Winnipeg	18	14	4	28	594	377
BC	18	12	6	24	495	439
Calgary	18	6	12	12	412	471
Saskatchewan	18	6	12	12	387	551
Edmonton	18	4	14	8	367	517
East
Toronto	18	16	2	32	591	396
Montreal	18	11	7	22	442	392
Hamilton	18	8	10	16	408	461
Ottawa	18	4	14	8	415	507

Interesting to note, now that everyone’s played 18 games.  Which team scored the most points? Which team allowed the least? Hmm, that team that’s fading away?

Head to head

Here’s how I see the matchups:

Special teams

Sean White of BC had a higher FG % than Winnipeg’s Castillo during the year (94.3% vs. 90.2%) and hit a higher percentage of his converts. Janarion Grant, if healthy, gives a punt return/kickoff return edge to Winnipeg over BC’s Terry Williams.

Advantage: BC

On the line

BC allowed 53 sacks this year compared to Winnipeg’s 33.  With long-armed Willie on the line, it’s:

Advantage: Winnipeg

Secondary

Much has been made about Winnipeg regularly giving up the big play and yet they still finished first in defending against the pass.  With BC’s double H threat (Hollins and Hatcher) it’ll be a challenge this week.  Not because the Lions have that great of a secondary, but because the Bombers will be in tough this week against the Lion’s receivers, it’ll be:

Advantage: BC

Receiving

It would be a toss up except Dalton Schoen’s out and Nic Demski (while probably playing) is injured.  H&H are BC’s strength.

Advantage: BC

Running game

Uhm . . . Bombers total rushing yards in 2023: 2,503;  BC 1,391.

Oh yeah, and BRADY (who rushed for 1,534 yards more than the entire BC Team)

Advantage (BIG): Winnipeg

Quarterback

Vernan Adams Jr. edged out Zach Collaros for most passing yards but Zach had a higher QB rating percentage of completion, and more TDs.  Plus, experience counts for something right?

Advantage: Winnipeg

So if you add all of that up, the final score should be 3-3

Keys to the game

For the Bombers to win

• Defense needs to step it up and get some pressure on VA Jr.
• Close games often come down to turnovers.  Get more than BC!
• Run the ball down the Lions throat

For the Lions to win

• Score early – have the lead at the half
• Hit the big pass play
• Sack Zach

Corbett report record

CFL Overall                50 out of 81 (62%)

Bomber games            13 out of 18 (72%)

The predictions

Is it really a foregone conclusion in Toronto? Fraid so:

Argos 36 Alouettes 22

But in the more intriguing game.  Home field is what playing the 18-game regular season is about: 

Bombers 33 Lions 30